The Stanley Cup; What It Takes (Part I)
The Stanley Cup is one of the great prizes in sports, bestowed upon the best team in the National Hockey League. Many of the most talented athletes in history have had their names and legacy etched into this cup, and many others have tried and failed to do so. With the NHL now expanding to 32 teams, and with advances in equipment, coaching styles, and minor league programs, the cup is now more than ever extremely difficult for any team and player to win. It involves heavy, physical play for a full 60 minutes of action against the best talent the NHL has to offer. It takes not only a physical toll on the body, but also a massive toll on one’s mentality. However, if a team is good enough to raise the Stanley Cup, it makes all of the pain and mental fatigue worth it. I am certain that if one were to ask any player that has won the cup if it was worth it, they would not hesitate to say yes it was. But what exactly does it take to win the Stanley Cup? What does a team need to win the greatest trophy in all of sports? After an in-depth analysis of the past 30 Stanley Cup winning teams, going all the way back to the 1990 Edmonton Oilers, I believe that there is a framework that if followed correctly, can help any team win Lord Stanley’s Cup.
I would first like to mention a few things before we begin our analysis. First, all statistics have come from multiple sources: www.nhl.com, www.naturalstattrick.com, www.quanthockey.com, www.hockey-reference.com, and a wonderful research article by author EvolvingWild titled “A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (Part 1)” detailing statistical analyses of NHL player productions over time. You can and should read this article here. Furthermore, I will admit that it was very difficult finding the exact rosters for each Stanley Cup Championship team from 1990 to 2008. Factors like time on ice was a stat exclusively for goaltenders until about 2008, and many of my database searches described the roster, but not the line rushes. As such, I did what I could to deduce the top two centers and top 4 defensemen of each Stanley Cup Championship team, as well as the top 6 wingers and starting goaltenders by examining: point totals, games played, time on ice (once it began being tracked for all players), and by researching each player individually. Once I determined the top two centermen, top 4 defensemen, the regular season and postseason team statistics, starting goaltenders, and top 6 wingers, I then examined a multitude of factors for each category. For centermen, I examined age, playoff point production, and draft order. For defensemen, I examined age, height, weight, and point production. For wingers, I examined age, playoff point production, and size. For goaltenders, I examined age, save percentage in both the regular season and postseason, and goals against average in both the regular season and posteason. Finally, for team statistics I examined the regular season and postseaon goals for, powerplay goals, overall league lank in those categories, and Stanley Cup frequencies of those categories. In this article, to preserve valuable attentiveness, I will discuss what I found for the categories of the top 2 centermen and the top 4 defensemen of each of the past 30 Stanley Cup winning teams (excluding 2021). In “The Stanley Cup: What It Takes (Part II)” , I will go over what my research showed with regards to wingers, goaltenders, and overall team statistics.
I will further mention before we divulge into the wonderful world of numbers, that I don’t believe statistics tell the whole story. They leave out intangibles such as leadership, mindsets, injury/ailments, coaching style, and team chemistry. However, they can and do provide a valuable framework and good insight into what constitutes a championship team through correlations. Keeping all of these things in mind, let us examine my findings.
Top 2 Centermen:
Starting with the top 2 centermen, as stated previously, I examined their age when they won the cup, their production in both the regular and postseasons, and when they were chosen in the draft. Starting with the past 30, #1 centermen to win cups, here is what my research found:
Age:
Over 30 years of age: 5 out of 30 or 17%
Under 30 years of age: 25 out of 30 or 83%
Age Range:
19 to 24 years old: 10 out of 30
25 to 29 years old: 15 out of 30
30 to 35 years old: 3 out of 30
Over 35 years old: 2 out of 30
Point Production:
Of all of those #1 centermen listed above, their average points per game during the postseason are as follows:
.1 to .4 average points per game: 0
.5 to .9 average points per game: 9 out of 30 centermen
1.0 to 1.4 average points per game: 21 out of 30 centermen
Draft Round:
Selected in the first round: 21 out of 30
Selected in the second round: 5 out of 30
Selected in the third round: 3 out of 30
Selected later than the third round: 1 out of 30
Now, let us take a look at the past 30 second line centermen to determine if there are any similarities.
Age:
Over 30 years of age: 10 out of 30
Under 30 years of age: 20 out of 30
Age Range:
19 to 24 years old: 10 out of 30
25 to 29 years old: 10 out of 30
30 to 35 years old: 5 out of 30
Over 35 years old: 5 out of 30
Point Production:
Of all of those second line centermen listed above, their average points per game during the postseason are as follows.
.1 to .4 average points per game: 7 out of 30
.5 to .9 average points per game: 17 out of 30
1.0 to 1.4 average points per game: 6 out of 30
Draft Round:
Selected in the first round: 16 out of 30
Selected in the second round: 3 out of 30
Selected in the third round: 4 out of 30
Selected later than the third round: 6 out of 30
Undrafted: 1 out of 30
Looking at these categories, it appears that age is most definitely a factor. Most #1 and #2 centermen to win the cup are younger than 30 years old, and their age tends to range anywhere from their early to late 20’s. In fact, when I dug a little deeper, I found that only 2 teams in the past 30 years have won the Stanley Cup when both their #1 and #2 centermen were older than 30: the 1998 Detroit Red Wings (Steve Yzerman was 32 and Igo Larinorov was 37), and the 2002 Detroit Red Wings (Steve Yzerman was 36 and Sergei Fedorov was 32). Both of those teams, one could argue, were two of the greatest NHL teams in history. Additionally, although he was older, Steve Yzerman was exceptionally talented. I believe that when a player has this high talent level, among other potential factors, it tends to make up for their age. Furthermore, outside of these 2 teams, 13 other teams won the cup with their #1 or #2 centermen being older than 30. A big thing that I noticed here is that if either the #1 or #2 centerman was older than 30, the other top 2 centerman was most likely younger than 30. For example, the 1994 New York Rangers won with Mark Messier, age 32, as their #1 centerman, but he had Alexi Kovalev, age 20, as his #2 centerman. Mark Messier is also an exceptional talent like Steve Yzerman, another commonality I found among top 2 centermen who have won the Stanley Cup when they were well into their 30’s. Going back to the other 15 teams that have won the cup in the past 30 years, they have done so with both their #1 and #2 centermen being younger than 30. Looking at all of this information, all signs seem to point to the fact that age of your key players is a huge factor that both players and organizations have to take into account if they expect to make a run at the Stanley Cup. It is also a factor that clearly gets worse over time, as one would expect given the physicality and wear and tear posteason hockey has on the body. However, it seems the more talented the player, the more likely they will continue to produce at a high levels during the postseason when they are well into their 30's.
My other findings regarding these players are that most #1 and #2 centermen were drafted in the first round. Some were drafted in the second round or later, but the majority appear to come from the first and second rounds of each draft. Also, the point production of a #1 centerman in the postseason should be expected to be anywhere around .8 to 1.4 points per game; while the point production of a #2 centerman in the postseason should be anywhere from .4 to .9 points per game (should be a given since they play less minutes and technically aren’t as “talented” as the #1 centerman). I will reiterate, statistics are not everything, but they do provide us with a framework for building a team good enough to win a Stanley Cup championship. From what we can see here, most Stanley Cup contending teams should have #1 and #2 centermen who are younger than 30, or at least one of them needs to be younger than 30. #1 centermen need to produce at a level of at least a point per game during the postseason while #2 centermen need to produce at a level of at least .6 points per game during the postseason. Finally, most of these players need to be drafed in the first or second rounds. It is possible to find diamonds in the rough in the later rounds, but for the most part, they are drafted in the first round.
Now we all know that these aren’t the only impact players a team needs in order for their team to be a Stanley Cup caliber team. Another key to any championship team is a very strong defensive core. If we have noticed anything by the consecutive first round exits of the lowly Toronto Maple Leafs, or the absolute manhandling of the Dallas Stars and Montreal Canadienes by the Tampa Bay Lightning, a great defense is a Stanley Cup essential. Let us take a look at the past 30 Stanley Cup winning top 4 defensive units and what made them so formidable at the time (these statistics do not reflect bottom pairing defensemen).
The first factor, like it should be with any player, is age. In this case, the average age of every top 4 defensive unit was analyzed.
Average Age of the top 4 defensive units:
19 to 24 years old: 1 out of 30 defensive units
25 to 29 years old: 18 out of 30 defensive units
30 to 35 years old: 11 out of 30 defensive units
Age Spread (how man top 4 defensive units had players under or over 30 years of age):
1 player under 30 years old, 3 players over 30 years old: 5 out of 30 defensive units.
2 players under 30 years old, 2 players over 30 years old: 12 out of 30 defensive units.
3 players under 30 years old, 1 player over 30 years old: 11 out of 30 defensive units.
4 Players under 30 years old: 2 out of 30 defensive units.
4 Players over 30 years old: 0 out of 30 defensive units.
After looking at age, I also examined the overall height and weight of each defensive unit. One should expect that a key to any Stanley Cup winning defense is the size of their defense. Undersized defensemen tend to get bullied in their own end, have trouble winning puck battles in the corners and in front of the net, and can get worn down more easily by intense physical play, not to mention they will be more prone to injuries. Here is what I found, and the results should not shock anyone.
Weight of each top 4 defensemen in every unit (4 players x 30 teams = 120 players):
Weight is under 190 lbs: 3 out of 120 defensemen 3%
Weight is between 190 and 200 lbs: 33 out of 120 defensemen 28%
Weight is greater than 200 lbs: 84 out of 120 defensemen or 69%
Height distribution among top 4 defensive units of 30 teams:
Top 4 defensive units with 2 players shorter than 6'0: 0 out of 30 defensive units, 0%
Top 4 defensive units with all 4 players under 6'0: 0 out of 30 defensive units, 0%
Top 4 defensive units that have at least 3 of their top 4 defensemen taller than 6'0: 30 out of 30 defensive units, 100%
Top 4 defensive units with all 4 players over 6'0: 17 out of 30 defensive units, 57%
Going back to my previous statement, none of this should come as surprise. It is obvious that all of the past 30 Stanley Cup championship caliber top 4 defensive units had size. All of them had at least 3 players in their top 4 be over 6'0 tall, and most of them weigh more than 200 lbs. Only 17 defensive units had a defenseman in their top 4 that was under 6'0 tall. In addition, nearly all defensemen weighed more than 190 lbs, most were over 200 lbs (69%, more than half!). An interesting finding, in addition to a top 4 defenseman’s ideal size, is the age that they need to be. When we look back to our stats regarding the age of top 4 defensemen, older defensemen seem to be a necessity in any top 4 defensive unit. Nearly half of these 30 units had an average age anywhere between 25 to 29 years of age (18 of 30) and nearly half had an average age of anywhere between 30 to 35 years of age (11 of 30). Furthermore, nearly half of these 30 units had at least 2 defensemen who were over 30 years of age (12 of 30), and nearly half of these 30 units had at least 3 defensemen under the age of 30 (11 of 30). None of these teams had all of their defensmen in their top 4 be over 30 and only 2 teams had all of their defensemen in their top 4 be under 30. It appears evident then that older players are necessary in any Stanley Cup Championship defensive unit. This is most likely due to their experience facing the top talent in the NHL for years, and because their bodies are perhaps more developed and filled out than they are when they were younger (which we know we need defensemen to have size).
Unfortunately, time on ice values were not gathered for all players until earlier this century. More could be done to analyze games played, point production, and average time on ice. In the meantime, however, what is clear is that your defensive core needs to have a good mixture of players under 30 years of age and over 30 years of age (although not too much of one or the other), and most need to be 6'0, 200 lbs or taller/heavier.
So, now that we are beginning to get a picture of what a Stanley Cup Championship team needs in order to be successful at a higher level, please read my following article, “Another Year, Another Season Ends Abruptly As The Boston Bruins Lose in 6 Games To The New York Islanders” to see how we can apply what we learned here and assess the current Bruins team as constituted. Be warned, after what we learned here, the answer may not be to our liking.
